Sargassum Forecast for Cancún & the Riviera Maya — Next 7 Days
Updated June 21, 2026 from Copernicus satellite data — refreshed 4× per day.
Most sargassum forecasts for the Mexican Caribbean hand you one verdict for all of Quintana Roo, built from official imagery that's already days old by the time it's published. This works differently: we run a separate forecast for each of the 12 beaches we monitor, from Holbox to Mahahual, because reality changes from one bay to the next — the same mat that buries Playa Delfines can slide right past Puerto Morelos. Every morning the model ingests the latest Copernicus satellite pass, locates the mats drifting inbound, and projects landings for the next seven days, beach by beach. The result updates daily — four satellite reads a day feed it — so you can pick your beach day before the sargassum picks it for you.
7-day forecast — Riviera Maya
- Playa Delfines (Clean, Beach Score 75/100) — Sun: Clean · Mon: Moderate · Tue: Moderate · Wed: Moderate · Thu: Moderate · Fri: Moderate · Sat: Clean
- Playa Tortugas (Clean, Beach Score 75/100) — Sun: Clean · Mon: Clean · Tue: Moderate · Wed: Moderate · Thu: Moderate · Fri: Clean · Sat: Clean
- Playa del Carmen Centro (Moderate, Beach Score 68/100) — Sun: Moderate · Mon: Moderate · Tue: Moderate · Wed: Moderate · Thu: Moderate · Fri: Moderate · Sat: Moderate
- Playa Paraíso (Clean, Beach Score 71/100) — Sun: Clean · Mon: Moderate · Tue: Moderate · Wed: Moderate · Thu: Moderate · Fri: Moderate · Sat: Clean
- Akumal Bay (Moderate, Beach Score 63/100) — Sun: Moderate · Mon: Moderate · Tue: Moderate · Wed: Moderate · Thu: Moderate · Fri: Moderate · Sat: Moderate
- Playa Palancar (Clean, Beach Score 71/100) — Sun: Clean · Mon: Clean · Tue: Moderate · Wed: Moderate · Thu: Moderate · Fri: Clean · Sat: Clean
- Playa Norte (Clean, Beach Score 66/100) — Sun: Clean · Mon: Clean · Tue: Moderate · Wed: Moderate · Thu: Clean · Fri: Clean · Sat: Clean
- Puerto Morelos (Clean, Beach Score 71/100) — Sun: Clean · Mon: Clean · Tue: Moderate · Wed: Moderate · Thu: Moderate · Fri: Moderate · Sat: Clean
- Playa Mahahual (Clean, Beach Score 71/100) — Sun: Clean · Mon: Moderate · Tue: Moderate · Wed: Moderate · Thu: Moderate · Fri: Moderate · Sat: Moderate
- Playa Holbox (Clean, Beach Score 83/100) — Sun: Clean · Mon: Clean · Tue: Moderate · Wed: Moderate · Thu: Moderate · Fri: Clean · Sat: Clean
- Xpu-Ha (Moderate, Beach Score 63/100) — Sun: Moderate · Mon: Moderate · Tue: Moderate · Wed: Moderate · Thu: Moderate · Fri: Moderate · Sat: Moderate
- Playa Maroma (Clean, Beach Score 80/100) — Sun: Clean · Mon: Moderate · Tue: Moderate · Wed: Moderate · Thu: Moderate · Fri: Moderate · Sat: Clean
How our forecast works
We start from the AFAI (Alternative Floating Algae Index), the spectral signature Copernicus and NOAA satellites use to detect floating sargassum from orbit. Each detected mat is projected forward with wind and surface-current data — sargassum drifts at roughly 2.5% of wind speed plus the local current. For seaweed already on the sand we apply exponential persistence with a 3.5-day half-life: it decays unless fresh material arrives. Community reports correct the satellite when clouds get in the way. Accuracy is highest on days 1 to 3, and everything recomputes daily.
Live Seaweed & Sargassum Map — Cancún and the Riviera Maya · Beaches Without Sargassum Today in Cancún & the Riviera Maya · Sargassum Season in Cancún & the Riviera Maya — 2026 Guide · Best beaches without sargassum · Sargassum this week · Methodology & accuracy · Press & media · Live map
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